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USFL favorites went 3-1 in Week 8, and I also went 3-1 against the spread. My best bet was probably calling the New Orleans Breakers covering 3.5 points against the Birmingham Stallions and still losing. That's exactly what happened. Don't look now, but the undefeated Stallions are 0-2 against the spread over the last two weeks.
The Stallions are one of three teams that have clinched a playoff spot. The New Jersey Generals also clinched a couple weeks ago, and the Philadelphia Stars clinched a postseason berth with their wild 46-24 win over the Michigan Panthers last Sunday. We also have three teams that have been officially eliminated from playoff contention: the Panthers, Pittsburgh Maulers and Houston Gamblers. Will they fight to the end of the regular season? Or mail it in?
For a breakdown of the USFL playoff picture, click here . There are just two weeks left in the regular season! Let's jump into the picks.
USFL ATS record: 18-14 USFL straight up record: 22-10
All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC) ATS records: Generals (5-3), Panthers (2-6)
The Generals are atop the North, but haven't clinched the division just yet. They need to win Saturday against one of the three 1-7 teams. The Panthers' 46-24 loss last week to the Stars was pretty gross. Just an embarrassing year for a team that had the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and ended up releasing the selection halfway through the year. The Generals haven't exactly blown out teams over the past few weeks, but I'll lay the points with the favorites. They have something to play for, and lead the league in rushing yards per game and overall yards per game.
The pick: Generals -7.5 Projected score: Generals 29-14
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (USA Network) ATS records: Gamblers (3-5), Stallions (6-2)
The Gamblers are always very much live to cover the spread, but don't ever bet on them to win outright. Houston hasn't won since Week 1, and looking at its remaining schedule, I'm not sure if Kevin Sumlin's squad will again. My thought process this week is pretty simple: the Stallions are probably going to win this game, but they have already clinched the top spot in the South and are 0-2 ATS over the past two weeks. Will Skip Holtz rest his starters? Keep an eye on that storyline, but right now I'm leaning to the Gamblers to cover this huge spread, even though they scored just three points last week.
The pick: Gamblers +13.5 Projected score: Stallions 23-13
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET (Fox) ATS records: Bandits (3-5), Breakers (5-3)
This is the game of the week. Both teams are in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the South, but the Breakers have an edge with the 5-3 record. With a win this weekend, they clinch. Truthfully, both these teams haven't been playing their best ball as of late. The Breakers lost a tough matchup to the Stallions by one point after holding a thin lead entering the fourth quarter, and the Bandits have scored just 13 points in two consecutive weeks.
If we take a step back and examine the seasons these two clubs have had, the Breakers have been the better team. No, they haven't been consistent, but they have the better record and the No. 1 passing offense in the league. Give me the Breakers to clinch their playoff berth in Week 9. Kyle Sloter just needs to not throw three interceptions again.
The pick: Breakers -3 Projected score: Breakers 24-18
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1) ATS records: Stars (5-3), Maulers (3-5)
The Maulers are what I think is the toughest team to bet in the USFL. While they are 1-7, they've kept games relatively close from an ATS perspective as of late. It seems you can never feel comfortable with your wager no matter what the score is. I find it interesting Kirby Wilson wants to switch quarterbacks again and again. Roland Rivers played last week instead of Vad Lee and had a decent showing, but completed just 18 of 38 passes. Several fans lamented the QB switch-up on social media.
With the Maulers eliminated from the postseason, we will see if they can match a team that's actually playing for something. The spread being 8.5 is definitely big, but I can't help but lay the points with the favorites and hope they dominate the fourth quarter -- eliminating any backdoor-cover mess.
The pick: Stars -8.5 Projected score: Stars 30-15
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