The Action Network’s Michael Arinze explores how the weather could impact the total in Friday’s Phillies-Giants game
After avoiding a sweep in Arizona, the Philadelphia Phillies wrap up their six-game road trip in San Francisco against the Giants. Both teams come into this series under very different circumstances.
On Wednesday, the Phillies pounded the Diamondbacks for 18 runs on 23 hits while the Giants picked up their seventh straight defeat in a 5-4 loss to the Padres.
Friday’s series opener features two right-handers with Kyle Gibson going for the visitors and Alex Cobb starting for Giants. I ran my numbers as far as a side in the game, and the projections are right in line with the current market price.
However, the total could be intriguing given the gameday weather report. I’ll expand on that and explore whether the recent developments are enough to consider making a play on Friday night.
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Moneyline: PHI (-110) vs. SFG (-110)
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+150) vs. SFG +1.5 (-185)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Kyle Gibson (9-5, 4.08 ERA) vs. Alex Cobb (4-6, 3.81 ERA)
The last thing the Phillies probably needed after putting up 18 runs was a day off on Thursday. They could certainly use that momentum heading into this matchup against the Giants.
According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies lineup is batting .162 with a .270 wOBA in 41 plate appearances when facing Cobb. And if we turn to Gibson, he’s also stymied the Giants, limiting them to a .200 average and .271 wOBA in 80 plate appearances.
Our Action Labs database shows that both pitchers have been more profitable for under bettors with a combined 24-20-2 mark. That’s even despite their teams being more profitable over bettors.
The Phillies are 65-61-5 to the over, while the Giants are 63-60-6. But as I mentioned above, the weather could play a massive role in the ballgame.
I looked at our Action Network weather report and saw that we could see wind speeds of around eight to nine mph blowing out to center and left-center field. More importantly, humidity could be an issue as it’s approaching 90%.
It’s worth noting that humidity levels of 50% or higher often favor hitters. And if you look across the betting board, we’re seeing an additional five to ten cents juice on the over with 7.5.
That’s a pretty good indication that this total will get to eight.
Nonetheless, I have to admit that I’m a bit torn about which direction to go in for this game. My model projects a total of 7.36 runs, slightly below the current number.
I always say that mother nature will still be undefeated no matter how good your projections are.
Let that one sink in a bit.
If you like the over, I recommend you bet it sooner than later. And while I also lean in that direction, this total likely won’t make my final card.
However, I will leave you with two active trends if you’re still undecided on the total:
The over is on a 4-0 run when the Phillies play the NL West.
The over is on a 4-1 run in the past five meetings.
Best of luck to everyone and how you choose to play the game.
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