The beacon atop the 1839 Buffalo Lighthouse glows as the sky settles into a deep shade of orange as daylight drifts away after sunset.
If you count Friday as part of the weekend, we’re not getting off to an ideal start. Even earlier in the day, scattered convection was already showing up on radar.
The words scattered and occasional should be kept in mind if you have outdoor plans … quite different from a steady rain. Still, conditions may get tricky, at times, during the humid day and evening. Even during more active periods, coverage will remain scattered and uneven, as seen in this high-resolution model for mid-afternoon.
Out ahead of an approaching cold front, the atmosphere will become more unstable this afternoon, and will allow a few stronger storms to develop, especially farther east. The Storm Prediction Center estimates a marginal/5% risk of severe storms with damaging gusts for much of Western New York, with a more notable 15% risk well to our east, shown in yellow.
Behind the cold front, drier and cooler air will begin filtering in late tonight. Under a Canadian ridge of high pressure, abundant sunshine and lower humidity will return on a beautiful, fairly tranquil Saturday.
The daytime high will be slightly below average, around 75. Boaters will not have that much wind to work with to speed up their sailpower. The northeast breeze will average 7-14 knots on both lakes by midday, with wave heights up to 2 feet. The Buffalo Lake Erie temperature remains at a warm 76 degrees, 4 above average.
A quick thermal turnaround develops on a summery Sunday. We’ll be moving into the warmer southerly flow behind the ridge, which will be moving off to the east of us.
The afternoon high will recover to the mid 80s, 6 or 7 degrees above average. Humidity will remain comfortable, and the UV index will remain high both days this weekend. Sunday boaters will face a southerly breeze of 7-14 knots by afternoon, with 1-2 foot wave heights.
A strengthening southwest flow will arrive on Monday, keeping temperatures very warm, boosting the high to the upper 80s with increasing humidity. A few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms may develop, especially along the edge of the lake breeze over hilly terrain. Dew points, as modeled, will be returning to the sticky upper 60s.
By Tuesday, more abundant cloud cover will hold highs to the low 80s. High humidity ahead of a more potent cold front will likely trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may become locally intense.
Behind the cold front, a more comfortable northwest flow will return to our region on Wednesday, bringing back much lower humidity and temps in the mid-upper 70s.
Under a Canadian high pressure ridge, Thursday’s highs will be in the coolish low 70s, as projected by the Weather Prediction Center.
Next Friday, we should be smack dab in the middle of the influence of the ridge, keeping us dry, bright and comfortable. The high will edge up only a few degrees, to the mid 70s. The bottom line for next week will include a warm and humid start, with more numerous showers and storms arriving Tuesday, ahead of a comfortable and dry mid and late week. Because of the uneven coverage of showers and storms, you may wish to continue watering and irrigating Sunday and Monday, and later next week, assuming you don’t get much out of the hit or miss convection.
Looking further ahead into the first week of September, the upper air ensembles show good agreement on a warmer pattern returning to the Great Lakes. However, the warmest core of a hot ridge of high pressure will remain anchored far to the west, keeping us out of excessive heat.
Because of the cooler start during the September 2-8 period, the Climate Prediction Center projects a mean temperature for the 8-14 day period running near normal in our region.
However, that timespan is skewed by the cooler than average start. There will be some warming as the following week progresses.
Remarkably quiet hurricane season ... so far
To sum up, the Atlantic tropical basin has been exceptionally quiet, despite preseason indicators that this would be the 7th consecutive above average tropical cyclone year. The primary culprit has been unseasonably dry air over a large part of the main development region, as tweeted by University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
Even where the air has more moisture, over the Caribbean, there has been more disruptive wind shear aloft. That suppresses development. Sea temperatures, both surface and to greater depths, remain a little above average, so it’s not for want of more heat energy to get things going. Dry, dusty Saharan air has been the main suppressive factor.
Since 1950, there have been only 2 years in which August had no named storms, and it’s looking like this will probably be the third. It should be noted, though, in one of those 2 years, 1961, 3 category 4s and 2 category 5s followed starting in September. It remains highly likely activity will increase later in the summer, which is normally when it peaks. But it is unknown whether nature will bring the numbers back to the more ominous original projections. These numbers do not project landfalling hurricanes. They are projections for tropical cyclones, whether or not they remain out to sea.
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The departure of 27% of the staff was, with a few exceptions, partly due to a "toxic" and demoralizing workplace under Shea's President Michael Murphy, four current and former Shea's employees told The Buffalo News.
A suspected marijuana transaction that went awry resulted in the fatal shooting of a 16-year-old Niagara Falls girl just after midnight Friday on Elmer Avenue in Buffalo.
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A release from Shea's Buffalo Theatre on Thursday afternoon announced Director of Operations Robert Brunschmid will expand his duties to include day-to-day supervision of the theater's operations.
After two decades of managing elections for other Republicans, Nicholas A. Langworthy claimed victory of his own early this morning, even if by the narrowest of margins over Carl P. Paladino for the GOP nomination in the 23rd Congressional District.
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"I am forever grateful for this community. I will always advocate for Western New York," said Paladino, a Buffalo developer.
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The beacon atop the 1839 Buffalo Lighthouse glows as the sky settles into a deep shade of orange as daylight drifts away after sunset.
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