The sun dips below clouds before setting behind the Fort Erie, Ontario horizon as a sailors and fishermen enjoy a quiet night on Lake Erie, Friday, Aug. 6, 2021.
A few locations picked up some helpful and needed rainfall Thursday, with Silver Creek topping the list at 1.33 inch. This list is a classic indicator of how typically scattered summertime convection is, with very uneven coverage.
Officially, the Buffalo Airport observatory picked up .23 inch, and is now running just under .6 inch below average for the month. That is not much of a negative anomaly. Most notable was the unexpected and significant tornado that carved quite a path in a portion of Wyoming County. Here is the Friday morning updated storm survey from the Buffalo National Weather Service. Frankly, Thursday was not a day in which meteorologists would have anticipated any tornadic storms in the 8 western counties.
Overall soil moisture in Western New York is deficient, with a narrow strip of moderate drought conditions embedded within an overall abnormally dry status. The drought is centered over northern Erie County, the southern two-thirds of Genesee and northern Wyoming counties and southeast Allegany County.
This is not a good starting point when we are headed into our likely hottest spell of the summer. Still, our dryness pales when compared to the drought and megadrought conditions gripping vast sections of the country.
The drought and heat in Texas have become matters of grave concern, and droughts over the central high Plains and Nebraska will add to food price inflation, as grain yields will be lessened.
All this is ongoing at the same time deadly floods in 8 Kentucky counties have produced fatalities now climbing through double digits following up to 12 inches of rain in less than a day. This follows the St. Louis flooding early in the week resulting from 9 inches of rain in 7 hours. The damage to residences and infrastructure is going to total in the billions. Some of this cataclysmic rainfall has been made more probable by increased water vapor in the atmosphere over moist areas. That, in turn, is tied to more evaporation due to warming. Still more excessive rain remains possible in parts of Appalachian Kentucky and West Virginia on Friday.
The atmospheric battle zone will shift somewhat westward on Saturday, and then back eastward on Sunday.
The so-called battle zone is associated with an undulating frontal boundary well to our south. This front will keep us cut off from any precipitation through at least Monday. High pressure will dominate in our region during the weekend, first presenting its comfortable side, before we move into its warmer return flow Sunday.
The Saturday high will be close to 80, with a mostly sunny sky and comfortable humidity. An afternoon southwest breeze will pick up to 12-18 mph in the metro area by mid-afternoon. Sunday will be somewhat warmer, with abundant sunshine, moderate humidity and a lighter wind. Highs will range from the low-to-mid 80s, coolest at the lakeshores. The UV index will be high both days. Lake Erie boaters will have waves up to 2 feet on Saturday, subsiding to 1 foot or less Sunday. Lake Ontario will have 2-4 foot waves Saturday, subsiding to 1-3 feet later, and down to 1 foot or less on Sunday.
After a high in the mid 80s on a muggier Monday, there are a couple of snippets of improvement in the forecast for next week, though you’ll probably have trouble noticing them. The approach of a warm front may set off a few showers later Monday night, and the proximity of frontal boundaries on Tuesday should produce more cloud cover in the humid air mass to hold actual temperatures down to 80-82. The fronts will likely trigger a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The European ECMWF model is not indicating any impressive, heavier convection Tuesday.
However, there are low confidence hints that these frontal boundaries may stay close enough to our region to stave off some of the peak heating that seems inevitably headed toward the 90s by late next week, and could even trigger a few more scattered convective cells Thursday or Friday. In any case, it will be uncomfortably warm and humid. The ECMWF is projecting dew points for next Thursday, for example, which will make for oppressive mugginess if these numbers verify.
Based on the current dry topsoil over much of our region, it is a safe bet that gardeners and farmers will need to continue to irrigate. If the trends in Friday guidance for closer proximity to these fronts hold, there could be spotty relief from a few convective cells next week. As of now, I don’t see a strong enough signal for anyone to count on this possible sparse activity. If your soil is already partly parched, as is the case in northern Erie and Niagara counties, I recommend you continue watering.
The most recent hazards outlook from the Climate Prediction Center still puts our region at significant risk for excessive heat in the Aug. 5-8 period.
CPC probabilities for above average temperatures remain high in the 6-14 day outlook.
The 3 principle upper air ensembles are in good agreement that the low level and upper air heat dome will remain over the east central U.S. at least through Aug. 8, keeping Western New York very warm to just plain hot.
Preliminary signs are showing some retrogression of the heat dome to the West by mid-month, which would afford us at least some modest relief from the heat.
Even in busy hurricane seasons, July is typically a quieter month in the Atlantic basin, while heat continues to build in tropical waters. This year has been forecast to be the 7th consecutive above average year for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Thus far, however, it has been exceptionally quiet. While areas of anomalous warmth are expanding, Saharan dust has continued to flow westward from Africa. The dust is a key element in suppressing development.
We are still expected to see a major increase in activity later in the summer and early autumn, as dust is likely to be less of a factor and ocean heating increases in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. In the meantime, it will probably remain fairly quiet at least into mid August, with this graphic remaining commonplace.
A few locations picked up some helpful and needed rainfall Thursday, with Silver Creek topping the list at 1.33 inch. This list is a classic indicator of how typically scattered summertime convection is, with very uneven coverage: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=HYD
Officially, the Buffalo Airport observatory picked up .23 inch, and is now running just under .6 inch below average for the month. That’s not much of a negative anomaly. Most notable was the unexpected and significant tornado which carved quite a path in a portion of Wyoming County. Here is the Friday morning updated storm survey from the Buffalo National Weather Service. Frankly, Thursday was not a day in which meteorologists would have anticipated any tornadic storms in the 8 western counties: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202207282217-KBUF-NOUS41-PNSBUF
Overall soil moisture in Western New York is deficient, with a narrow strip of moderate drought conditions embedded within an overall abnormally dry status. The drought is centered over northern Erie County, the southern two-thirds of Genesee and northern Wyoming Counties, as well as southeast Allegany County: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast
This is not a good starting point when we are headed into our likely hottest spell of the summer. Still, our dryness pales when compared to the drought and megadrought conditions gripping vast sections of the country: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The drought and heat in Texas have become matters of grave concern, and droughts over the central high plains and Nebraska will add to food price inflation as grain yields will be lessened.
All this is ongoing at the same time deadly floods in 8 Kentucky counties have produced fatalities now climbing through double digits following up to 12 inches of rain in less than a day. This follows the St. Louis flooding early in the week resulting from 9 inches of rain in 7 hours. The damage to residences and infrastructure is going to total in the billions. Some of this cataclysmic rainfall has been made more probable with increased water vapor in the atmosphere over moist areas. That, in turn, tied to more evaporation due to warming. Still more excessive rain remains possible in parts of Appalachian Kentucky and West Virginia on Friday: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif?1659102292324
The atmospheric battle zone will shift somewhat westward on Saturday, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif?1659104436163 and then back to the east on Sunday: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif?1659104493310
The so-called battle zone is associated with an undulating frontal boundary well to our south. This front will keep us cut off from any precipitation through at least Monday. High pressure will dominate in our region during the weekend, first presenting its comfortable side, before we move into its warmer return flow on Sunday: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/99fndfd_init_2022072900.gif
The Saturday high will be close to 80 with a mostly sunny sky and comfortable humidity. An afternoon southwest breeze will pick up to 12-18 mph in the metro area by mid-afternoon. Sunday will be somewhat warmer with abundant sunshine, moderate humidity, and a lighter wind. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s, coolest at the lakeshores. The UV index will be high both days. Lake Erie boaters will have waves up to 2 feet on Saturday, subsiding to 1 foot or less Sunday. Lake Ontario will have 2-4 foot waves Saturday, subsiding to 1-3 feet later, and down to 1 foot or less on Sunday.
After a high in the mid 80s on a muggier Monday, there are a couple of snippets of improvement in the forecast for next week, though you’ll probably have trouble noticing them. The approach of a warm front may set off a few showers later Monday night, and the proximity of frontal boundaries on Tuesday should produce more cloud cover in the humid air mass to hold actual temperatures down to 80-82. The fronts will likely trigger a few scattered showers and thunderstorms: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh_conus.gif
The European ECMWF model is not indicating any impressive, heavier convection Tuesday: https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022072900/111/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png
However, there are low confidence hints these frontal boundaries may stay close enough to our region to stave off some of the peak heating which seemed inevitably headed toward the 90s by late next week, and even trigger a few more scattered convective cells next Thursday or Friday. In any case, it will be uncomfortably warm and humid. The ECMWF is projecting dew points for next Thursday, for example, which will make for oppressive mugginess if these numbers verify: https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022072900/162/sfctd.us_ne.png
Based on the current dry topsoil over much of our region, it’s a safe bet gardeners and farmers will need to continue to irrigate. If the trends in Friday guidance for closer proximity to these fronts hold, there could be spotty relief from a few convective cells next week. As of now, I don’t see a strong enough signal for anyone to count on this possible sparse activity. If your soil is already partly parched, as is the case in northern Erie and Niagara Counties, I recommend you continue watering.
The most recent hazards outlook from the Climate Prediction Center still puts our region at significant risk for excessive heat in the August 5-8th period: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png
CPC probabilities for above average temperatures remain high in the 6-14 day outlook: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
The 3 principle upper air ensembles are in good agreement the low level and upper air heat dome will remain over the east central U.S. at least through August 8th, keeping Western New York very warm to just plain hot: https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022072900/234/500h_anom-mean.conus.png
Preliminary signs are showing some retrogression of the heat dome to the west by mid-month, which would afford us at least some modest relief from the heat: https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022072900/360/500h_anom-mean.conus.png
Even in busy hurricane seasons, July is typically a quieter month in the Atlantic basin, while heat continues to build in tropical waters. This year has been forecast to be the 7th consecutive above average year for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Thus far, however, it has been exceptionally quiet. While areas of anomalous warmth are expanding, Saharan dust has continued to flow westward from Africa. The dust is a key element in suppressing development: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=01&length=24&dim=1
We are still expected to see a major increase in activity later in the summer and early autumn, as dust is likely to be less of a factor and ocean heating increases in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. In the meantime, it will probably remain fairly quiet at least into mid August, with this graphic remaining commonplace: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Several dozen people temporarily blocked traffic on Route 33 in Buffalo Saturday evening as they released balloons to pay tribute to a fatal accident victim.
Buffalo police were continuing to investigate a blockade of the westbound Kensington Expressway on Saturday evening caused by motorists who stopped their cars to release balloons as a memorial tribute to a man who died July 16 in a motorcycle crash.
Former Deputy John A. Gugino, 45, was entering a men’s room at Highmark Stadium when an on-duty deputy saw him and called him corrupt, said his sister Jill Gugino-Redman, whose account of the episode comes from her brother.
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A state appeals court last week upheld an administrative ruling that 16 of the teachers engaged in an unlawful strike when they used a sick day following a fight, during which a youth fleeing the altercation threatened to come back the next day and kill everyone in the school.
The 97-year-old former Hall of Fame coach of the Buffalo Bills and World War II veteran chimes in on gun violence in the United States.
Latifah McBryde earned a spot to represent the U.S. at the Pan-American Women's Wrestling Championships. But United World Wrestling denied her request to wear a uniform that conforms with Muslim modesty standards.
Longtime journalist Sheila Rayam has been named executive editor of The Buffalo News, the first Black journalist and the second woman to hold the position in The News’ 142-year history.
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Vish Burra, the spokesperson for Carl P. Paladino's congressional campaign, was convicted of drug possession in 2014, The Buffalo News has learned. He is the second Paladino campaign associate in nine days revealed to have had a criminal record before joining the campaign for the 23rd Congressional District seat.
The sun dips below clouds before setting behind the Fort Erie, Ontario horizon as a sailors and fishermen enjoy a quiet night on Lake Erie, Friday, Aug. 6, 2021.
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